Hungary: Orban does not want to go quietly

Many EU countries are helping Ukraine withstand the Russian invasion. But there is one country that prevents the European community from helping our country and almost always "pours water on the Russian mill." This is Hungary. Few would argue that the current bilateral relations between Ukraine and Hungary have deteriorated significantly, especially since the full-scale invasion. They have deteriorated to the point of threatening Ukraine's nationalsecurity...

Historic elections in Hungary

But there is hope that the situation will change this year. The fact is that in April 2026, Hungary will elect a new parliament that will form the government and the entire vertical of power in the country.

And if any vote can be called historic for Hungary, the 2026 elections will undoubtedly be just that. According to preliminary data, Viktor Orban, who has been ruling the country since 2010 and has won every time in a landslide, now has a high chance of being defeated. The rating of his Fidesz party has been showing a downward trend for four years in a row. And over the past four months, all independent polls without exception have shown that Orban's party is expected to lose its majority in the 2026 elections.

The government's ratings have fallen amidst the intensification of the internal and external crisis, political instability, and changes in the European geopolitical landscape, and the issue of a possible change of government is becoming particularly relevant. In particular, after the rapid rise in popularity of the Tysa party led by Peter Magyar. Also, in the last mayoral elections, Gergely Koracsonyi, a member of the opposition Dialog party, who supports Ukraine, won the mayorship for the second time with a minimal margin. This proves once again that Budapest has been and still is anti-Orbán, as evidenced by numerous anti-government demonstrations.

However, political reality is more complicated than any polls.

Orban is not going to give up

Viktor Orban is an experienced politician who has served as Prime Minister of Hungary for over 20 years (1998-2002, 2010-2025). During his second cadence, Hungary has gone through a significant transformation from strengthening authoritarian tendencies and gradually moving away from European democratic standards to flirting with Russia and becoming a fifth column within the EU against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

According to Ukrayinska Pravda, Orban is known for his ability to emerge victorious even from difficult situations. Usually, with the help of the Hungarian state propaganda machine, which creates artificial "enemies of the Hungarian nation." The recent actions of the Hungarian authorities confirm that this time they are using the usual scenario. Hungary's actions in recent years leave no room for doubt: Ukraine has been designated as one of these "enemies."

Orban is well aware that it will be especially difficult to win this time. That is why he is taking extraordinary steps.

PHOTO: Akos Stiller / Bloomberg

In general, Hungary is a parliamentary republic by the form of government. The main representative and legislative body of the country is the National Assembly, which has many powers and consists of 199 deputies. However, its most important function is the ability to elect the head of state and the head of government on the proposal of the president. According to the Hungarian constitution, if the National Assembly does not support the prime minister's candidacy, the president must submit a new one within 15 days. In addition, the president can dissolve the parliament and set a date for new early elections if the head of government is not elected. Elections are held every four years in the spring under a mixed-majority system, and their results determine which political force will receive a majority or the opportunity to form a future coalition. Usually, the president nominates a candidate proposed by a political force that has received a parliamentary majority or is able to form a coalition. Thus, the prime minister is the political leader supported by the majority of MPs.

To give Orban a chance, the Hungarian parliament urgently amended the country's constitution last April. The new changes gave the government leverage over the opposition. It could potentially go as far as removing "unworthy" candidates from the election. Opposition MPs boycotted the meetings or voted against them, but it didn't matter - Orban's party has a constitutional mono-majority, which is enough to make a decision.

The government also distorted the electoral districts to weaken the opposition. In short, the Hungarian authorities are preparing for a fierce struggle.

Orban is actively opposed to helping Ukraine

The actions of the Hungarian authorities have already yielded some results. Thus, in recent surveys, the difference in support between the group of Péter Magyar (the opposition party Tisza) and Prime Minister Orban's ruling Fidesz party has somewhat decreased.

Therefore, Viktor Orbán continues to push the Ukrainian issue. At the end of last year, he said that the 2026 parliamentary elections would determine whether Hungary would stay out of the war in Europe or join a coalition in support of Ukraine.

"In the 2026 parliamentary elections, I will seek a mandate from Hungarians that will allow me to keep the country out of the war in Europe," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in an interview with M1 TV on Wednesday, December 31.

"If we stay away, we will be able to maintain a peaceful economy. The alternative is a war economy," the prime minister warned. He added that the second option would mean "sending our money to Brussels and then to Ukraine and impoverishing Hungary."

Helping Orban, in October 2025, the Hungarian parliament extended the state of emergency in the country, which was declared in 2022 amid Russia's war against Ukraine. This state of emergency will remain in effect during the next parliamentary elections, as it is currently set to expire on May 14, 2026.

Under the state of emergency law, the government can suspend the basic rights of citizens, including the right to protest. Officials claim that this will not affect voting in the elections.

Last year, Hungary already held local and European Parliament elections under a state of emergency. They also showed that the ruling party was losing supporters.

Another chance for Orban to stay in power

As Orbán is lagging in the polls, he is considering how to stay in power.

He is considering the idea of taking the presidency and rewriting the laws to make this position the most influential in Hungary.

Bloomberg reports this with reference to a source familiar with the situation.

The report says that Orban's potential plan to turn the ceremonial role of the head of state into something powerful has raised concerns among the opposition, which has precedents in Turkey and Russia.

PHOTO: Reuters

The possibility that Orbán will reorganize the presidential power is being considered by the opposition party Tisza. Its leader, Peter Magyar, promises to abolish Orban's rule if he wins the April elections.

Orban, 62, raised the issue of a presidential system after meeting with his ally President Donald Trump at the White House last October, saying that the plan is "always under discussion." In early November 2025, the Hungarian parliament approved a bill by Orban's Fidesz party that makes it more difficult for lawmakers to remove the president from office in the future.

Conclusions.

Orban is trying to stay in power despite his low approval rating by any means necessary.

He has already rewritten the electoral rules since returning to power in 2010, reducing the number of lawmakers in parliament and redrawing the boundaries of electoral districts. Given the precedents in Turkey and Russia, there is talk in Budapest that Orban will not go away quietly if he loses his first election in two decades.

A poll of 1,000 adults conducted by Hungarian research company Political Capital and published last November showed that 63% of respondents expect Fidesz to make more changes before April.

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