When will Ukraine join the European Union?

(Flags of Ukraine near the European Commission building in Brussels. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo)

On September 28, the people of Moldova proved their European aspirations in the elections. Also at the end of September, Ukraine completed the process of screening its legislation in preparation for the start of negotiations on joining the European Union. The European Commission announced this in a special statement.

An important step towards EU accession

The end of the first month in the fall coincided with an important step on Ukraine's path to the EU - the completion of the screening of our country's legislation.

"Bilateral screening began in July 2024, and its rapid completion was made possible by Ukraine's commitment, professionalism and motivation to implement reforms, harmonize legislation with EU standards and join the EU family. Achieving this goal in the face of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine is an impressive testament to the country's resilience and determination," the European Commission said in a statement.

It is noted that during the bilateral screening, a thorough analysis of each policy area (also known as negotiation chapters) and Ukraine's compliance in each area was conducted, and Kyiv has identified clear plans to bring it into line with the rules.

The European Commission presents the results of the screening to Member States in screening reports, in which it may recommend that they open negotiations in the relevant policy areas, and once Member States agree, negotiating chapters that are part of broader thematic clusters may be opened.

It is expected that Ukraine will continue its reform efforts, conduct a formal analysis of the compliance of Ukrainian legislation with EU law by the end of the year, then harmonize its legislation with EU law and strengthen its institutional and administrative capacity, guided by the criteria set by the Member States, and be ready to open accession negotiations in all six clusters.

There are 35 negotiating chapters in the EU, which are grouped into six clusters that need to be "closed" in order to become a member of the bloc. The six clusters are fundamentals, internal market, competitiveness and inclusive growth, green agenda and sustainable connectivity, resources, agriculture and cohesion, and external relations.

When a country unifies its legislation in all these areas, and this is recognized by all 27 members of the European Union, then the country is given the go-ahead for EU membership after a ratification process by all member states.

When will negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU start?

The EU believes that negotiations on the first negotiation clusters between Ukraine and the EU will begin in April next year. This date is closely linked to the parliamentary elections in Hungary, a country that is blocking Ukraine's accession to the EU. The European Union hopes that the party of current Prime Minister Viktor Orban will lose the majority in the country's parliament. As a result, the current opposition, which is more loyal to Ukraine and will not put obstacles in the way of its European integration, may come to power in this country.

Some European politicians believe that there is no way to persuade the current Hungarian government to lift the veto.

"So far, there is no way to overcome Hungary's veto," said a senior EU official who commented on the situation with Ukraine's accession to the EU on condition of anonymity to DW.

According to him, if it were not for Hungary's veto, we could have started opening the first and subsequent clusters very quickly.

In turn, another anonymous EU official, commenting on the only "practical way out" in the current situation, advised the Ukrainian authorities to be one hundred percent ready to open negotiations. He noted that all the technical work should be done in advance so that after Orban's departure, the process of negotiations with Ukraine could be launched promptly. In other words, if Ukraine does its homework in good faith, nothing will slow down the negotiations, and they can move forward quite quickly after Orban loses power in Hungary.

It should be noted that the EU leadership was looking for ways to overcome Orban's veto back in the summer, but stopped looking after July 22, when the Ukrainian government tried to liquidate the NABU and the SAPO.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is blocking Ukraine's accession to the EU. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo

In late June, Orban said that his country's citizens had voted in a referendum against supporting Ukraine's membership in the EU. "2 million 168 thousand of our compatriots voted that we cannot take the risks associated with Ukraine's accession to the EU. This is 95% of all valid votes," he said. Thus, according to him, Hungary does not support Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

The Hungarian opposition is questioning the results of the vote, pointing to the too low percentage of those who voted. According to Orban, about 2.3 million people took part in the referendum, less than a third of the nearly 8 million voters. The leader of the opposition TISZA party, Péter Magyar, believes that the figure was even lower - about 600,000 people. He pointed to a lack of transparency in the voting, which took place over several weeks, including online.

The EU called the referendum results presented by Orban non-binding. Hungary has no objective reasons to delay Ukraine's European integration process, said European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier. According to him, the results of the vote in Hungary did not affect the position of the European Commission, whose position is "very clear." He emphasized that Ukraine has fulfilled all the requirements for democratic reforms, "in particular, provided guarantees of minority rights, thus removing all doubts of the EU countries bordering it.

At the same time, other options for speeding up Ukraine's accession to the EU are being discussed in the EU, including the possibility of starting negotiations without Hungary's opinion. For example, Denmark, which holds the presidency of the EU Council, is ready to put pressure on Hungary, but is also considering other options.

"We are still putting pressure on Hungary. Our goal is still to open the first cluster and preferably more clusters. In fact, Ukraine will be ready to open all clusters this year. This is what the EC says, and it will be in line with the achievements-based approach, and that is why we are still putting pressure on Hungary," said Marie Bjerre Holst, Minister of European Affairs of Denmark.

At the same time, the EU is working on other measures to advance the negotiation process without officially opening the clusters. This may include further assistance to Ukraine in implementing the necessary reforms so that when the decision to officially open the negotiation clusters is made, they can be closed more quickly.

In turn , Lithuania called on the EU countries to start negotiations on the accession of Ukraine and Moldova without the consent of Hungary, which is blocking the process.

In its letter to the EU countries, Lithuania proposed to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on the first chapter of membership without Hungary's consent.

"Lithuania seeks to unblock the EU membership negotiations with Ukraine, which have reached a deadlock due to Hungary's veto. Any further delay is geopolitically harmful for both Ukraine and the EU itself. Ukraine's membership in the EU is part of the security guarantees and a prerequisite for long-term peace and stability in Europe," said Acting Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys.

If 26 member states support this initiative, the process will take place at the technical level, i.e. de facto, and legalization will take place later, but provided that the position of Viktor Orban or the Hungarian government changes.

However, the Netherlands opposed the proposed plan, which would have allowed Ukraine to start negotiations on EU accession sooner. Although most member states supported the idea of easing procedures, the Netherlands refused to change the principle of unanimity in key decisions. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said that the Netherlands does not support EU President Antonio Costa 's proposal to speed up Ukraine's accession negotiations by abolishing the unanimity principle in favor of a qualified majority.

"The future of Moldova and Ukraine is in the EU, but changing the rules is not the way to go," Schoof emphasized.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof. Getty Images/Thierry Monasse

He also added that changing the procedure would also require unanimous support, and called the solution to increase pressure on Hungary, which is blocking the process.

Earlier, European Council President Antonio Costa led efforts to ensure that negotiating clusters could be opened with the consent of a qualified majority of EU countries, not just unanimity. In this way, the Hungarian veto could potentially be overcome.

Who else might oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU

In addition to Orban's tough stance against Ukraine's accession to the EU, there are many other politicians in Europe who fear our country's accession to the EU.

For example, it was previously noted that, in addition to Hungary, Slovakia, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico, might oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU, but this year this politician withdrew from the "Anti-Ukrainian Alliance" with Hungary.

Thus, on October 17, at the opening of joint intergovernmental Ukrainian-Slovak consultations in Kosice, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that Ukraine's accession to the European Union would strengthen cooperation between the two countries. He added that his country supports Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

However, it turned out that Ukraine's longtime ally, Poland, may oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU. As Intent has already reported, the reason for this may be the different attitudes in these countries to the so-called Volyntragedy.

The attitude to the Volyn tragedy in Poland is very ambiguous. PHOTO: Getty Images

Thus, in addition to the negative attitude towards Ukraine on the part of Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysh said that until the dispute over this episode in history is resolved, Ukrainians should not count on EU membership.

"If there is no exhumation or commemoration, it will have no chance of joining the EU. I expressed very clear and strong opposition in cases where the good name of Poland was trampled on in some way, or attempts were made to glorify Bandera," the minister said.

On September 22, Moldova also announced the completion of its European integration screening. Hopefully, the EU will be able to overcome Orban's veto, and Ukraine will resolve the dispute with Poland over the Volyn tragedy. Then the two countries will be able to continue their European aspirations.

Володимир Шкаєв

How far has Ukraine progressed on its way to the European Union?

<span><span><span><b>An important step towards EU accession</b></span></span></span>

<span><span><span><b>When will negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU start?</b></span></span></span>

<span><span><span><b>Who else might oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU</b></span></span></span>

You might also like: