Elections in Moldova: aspirations for the European Union and the weight of Bucharest

Last Sunday, parliamentary elections were held in neighboring Moldova. Many residents of the Odesa region watched them more closely than last year's presidential elections in Moldova. After all, Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and although the current president, Maia Sandu, is still the informal leader of the Action and Solidarity party, which rules according to the law, the prime minister has much more power than the president. Therefore, for the first time in probably many years, the elections in Moldova have become important for Ukraine and especially important for the Odesa region.

Aspirations for the European Union

On October 20, 2024, a national referendum was held in Moldova along with the presidential election on whether the country should amend the Constitution to include the desire of Moldovan citizens for EU membership in order to prevent possible attempts by future governments to change course from a pro-European one. In March 2022, after Russia' s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova applied for EU membership. In June, the European Council granted Moldova the status of a candidate country. In December 2023, the European Council announced its decision to start accession negotiations with Moldova. At that time, Sandu proposed to the parliament to organize a referendum on Moldova's accession to the EU, which took place last year along with the presidential elections. Moldova has set a target date of joining the EU by 2030.

Russia's interference last year

Last year, an aggressive Russia tried to counter the desire of Moldovan citizens to be in the EU and exerted pressure and outright bribery of voters. For example, on March 5, 2024, the Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) issued a warning that Russia was planning steps to destabilize the country, which is seeking to get rid of Moscow's longstanding influence and become an EU member. The head of SIS , Alexandru Mustuta, said that "his agency has received certain information about actions planned for this year and next year that could jeopardize Moldova's accession to the EU and bring it back into Russia's sphere of influence." Also, in early June last year, the governments of three countries-Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States-said that the Russian Federation was planning a plot to influence the results of the presidential election in Moldova in the fall of 2024. On July 3, at a hearing, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Christopher Smith told members of Congress that the elections would be a "historic opportunity" for Moldovan citizens, but that the country faced Russian interference and disinformation.

In 2024, the referendum was recognized as valid. However, Maia Sandu failed to win in the first round. On November 3, Moldovan citizens voted in the second round of the presidential election, which pitted incumbent President Maia Sandu against former Moldovan Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo. After counting the votes, the Central Election Commission of Moldova announced that Maia Sandu had won. She was supported by 930,512 Moldovan citizens, 55.41% of those who took part in the election, and her rival was supported by 748,781 citizens, or 44.59%.

Sandu vs. Stoianoglo (2024)/Photo: BBC

This year's intervention

Russia did not abandon its attempts to interfere in Moldova's politics in 2025. Thus, on July 30, after a meeting of the Supreme Security Council of Moldova, President Maia Sandu said that Russia was preparing unprecedented interference in the upcoming parliamentary elections to bring about a change in the current government. Sandu added that Russia is using illegal financial channels to support political projects inside the country. In particular, she noted that about 100 million euros are planned to be transferred through cryptocurrency schemes alone. Such interference, the president emphasized, poses a direct threat to Moldova's national security, sovereignty, and European course.

"The Russian Federation wants to establish control over the Republic of Moldova in the fall and is preparing unprecedented interference in the September elections," Sandu said.

According to her, the Kremlin has invested in several political projects to get its representatives into parliament. These initiatives are funded mainly through schemes linked to Ilan Shor. For example, on July 22, former Moldovan President Igor Dodon (PSRM), Iryna Vlah (Republican Party "Heart of Moldova"), Vasile Tarlev (Party for the Future of Moldova), and Vladimir Voronin (Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova) announced that they would run together in the parliamentary elections and intend to create an electoral bloc. In early August, the Central Election Commission of Moldova registered this political bloc for participation in the parliamentary elections without the participation of the Communist Party.

Ilan Shore/photo: Ukrinform

In July, the Central Election Commission of Moldova did not accept the application of the Peremoha bloc for registration to participate in the parliamentary elections. Deputy Chairman of the CEC Pavel Postica said that members of the Peremoha bloc are associated with fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Moldova. In addition, according to him, the holding of the congress of the Peremoha political bloc in Moscow "aroused reasonable suspicion." He also reminded that the law prohibits the creation of a new political force on the basis of a party that has been recognized as unconstitutional. Leaders of the Peremoha bloc, who attended the meeting, said they considered the CEC's decision unlawful. During the meeting, at the request of the CEC members, the leader of the Chance party, Oleksiy Lunga, was removed from the room.

In addition to the facts already mentioned, a week before the elections, incumbent President Maia Sandu accused Russia in an interview with the Financial Times of intensifying its interference in the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, 2025, in particular through its influence on the Moldovan diaspora abroad. According to her, Moscow has stepped up its online disinformation campaign.

"The Russians are targeting the diaspora," she said, accusing the Kremlin of spreading propaganda through Russian Orthodox priests and using the Matryoshka bot network to create fake content that is passed off as material from legitimate foreign media.

According to Sandu, in 2024, Russia spent an amount equivalent to 1% of Moldova's GDP on interfering in the elections. The president also noted that the tactics of the aggressor country are evolving: Kremlin mercenaries are provoking riots in Moldovan prisons.

"Russia is using a really wide range of tools to try to overcome our institutions," she said.

The President reminded that last year, Moldovan intelligence agencies exposed an "unprecedented" Russian offensive on the electoral process, including the financing of vote buying through a network of intermediaries. She also expressed fears of a repeat of the events of 2024, when Russian agents staged fake bomb threats at polling stations abroad, particularly in Germany.

During a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Sandu called on the EU to take into account Moldova's experience.

"I want the EU to learn from our experience," she told the Financial Times before the speech. " Moldova is a fragile democracy, but we see that some of the things that Russia does in Moldova are then exported to other places. We should not underestimate the danger to our democracies."

Victory for European integrators

Before the decisive day of the election, there were predictions that the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), represented by the current president, Maia Sandu, would win the election. The intrigue remained in whether the supporters of European integration would be able to form a single majority in parliament or whether the pro-Russian forces that had been elected to the country's main legislative body would be able to unite and win a majority of votes. After the ballots were processed, when the Central Election Commission of Moldova announced the preliminary results of the election, having counted protocols from 100% of polling stations, it became known that the PAS party would have a mono-majority in the Moldovan parliament. Blocul Patriotic, Blocul electoral "Alternativa", Partidul Nostru, and PPDA also entered the parliament.

Vasile Kostiuk/photo: Europa Liberă Moldova

The surprise of these Moldovan elections was the success of the Democracy at Home Party (PPDA) led by Vasile Costiuc. This is a young unionist right-wing party that advocates the unification of Moldova with Romania. "Democracy at Home and the Romanian right-wing AUR of Gheorghe Simion (a right-wing politician and second place finisher in the Romanian presidential election) have an officially signed political cooperation agreement. Kostiuk has expressed support for Simion several times. These elections proved that Bucharest is also gaining weight in the Moldovan domestic political game.

The European integrationist party Action and Solidarity gained a majority in parliament and the ability to form the country's government independently.

<u>Five political forces entered the parliament:</u>

PAS party - 50.20

Patriotic Bloc - 24.17 %.

the Alternative electoral bloc - 7.96 %.

"Our Party" - 6.20

Democracy at Home - 5.62%

Володимир Шкаєв