Feb. 21, 2025, 11:17 p.m.
(Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa/picture alliance/DW)
On February 23, Germany will hold early elections to elect the Bundestag. The early elections were called after the coalition that had ruled for the past three years collapsed. On November 12, the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens agreed on the date of the no-confidence vote against Olaf Scholz 's government on December 16, 2024, as well as the date of the early plebiscite. Find out how the elections will be held and what Ukrainians should expect from them in the material of Intent from the series " Electoral systems of the world".
The political system of Germany
When to expect the results and what Ukraine can expect
The political system of the Federal Republic of Germany (Germany) is based on the principles of federalism and parliamentary democracy. It operates as a parliamentary democracy where political parties play a major role. To form a government, the parties must reach an agreement after the elections.
Elections are held under a proportional representation system, and the federal parliament (Bundestag) elects the chancellor, the head of government. The Chancellor leads the country and selects ministers.
The laws of the country are determined by the Constitution, which is overseen by the Federal Constitutional Court. Germany is a federation, so power is divided between the central government and the regions (Länder).
Everyone who is 18 years old and has German citizenship can vote in the Bundestag elections. Any German citizen who is at least 18 years old can become a candidate. Elections in Germany are usually held on Sunday, as most people are not working on this day and have the opportunity to come to the polling station. However, it is possible to vote in advance by mail, which requires an application.
In the Bundestag elections, each voter has two votes:
The second vote is decisive, as it determines the distribution of seats in the parliament. This system is called "personalized proportional representation".
All voters receive an election notice 4-6 weeks before the election, but no later than three weeks before the election day. This letter contains the address of the polling station. Polling stations are temporarily located in schools or other public buildings. Voting booths are set up inside to ensure the secrecy of the vote.
In the Bundestag elections, a five percent threshold is applied, meaning that to be represented in the parliament, a party must receive at least five percent of the vote or three direct seats.
Due to the peculiarities of the electoral system, one party often cannot form a government on its own. To do so, it needs to win more than half of the seats. Therefore, it is common practice to form a coalition government. That is why some parties announce their potential coalition partners before the elections.
Photo: Fabian Sommer /dpa vía AP
The 2021 elections were won by the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party and the Greens, receiving about 52% of the vote. This allowed Olaf Scholz to become chancellor.
However, in the European Parliament elections in June 2024, the ruling coalition received only 31% of the vote. Despite this, Scholz announced that he plans to run again. In September, the coalition parties were defeated in local elections in Saxony and Thuringia, and in Brandenburg, the SPD barely beat the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
In November, the government failed to agree on the state budget for 2025 due to disagreements between the center-left SPD and center-right FDP. This led to the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers, the collapse of the coalition, and a political crisis.
The main candidates for the post of German Chancellor in the early elections are Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU), Olaf Scholz (SPD), Alice Weidel (AfD) and Robert Haback (Greens), with Merz leading in the polls and Weidel's chances minimal due to the refusal of other parties to cooperate with the AfD.
Photo: Mykola Berdnyk/DW
The leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a representative of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, Friedrich Merz, a lawyer by training, is considered the favorite for the post of German Chancellor in the early Bundestag elections. According to polls, the bloc he leads is leading the election race with a rating of about 30 percent. Merz's recent "rapprochement" with the right-wing populist AfD on the issue of implementing a tough migration policy, although it caused a wave of criticism and protests in Germany, did not harm the bloc's ratings.
Photo: Ardan Fuessmann/IMAGO
The current German Chancellor Olaf Sch olz is fighting for re-election in early elections. The SPD party has once again nominated Scholz as a candidate for chancellor, although after the collapse of the coalition, many Social Democrats suggested Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as an alternative, as he is the most popular politician in the country, according to polls.
According to the polls, the Social Democrats are supported by about 15 percent of voters, meaning they can claim third place in the election. If the SPD thus loses the February 23 snap parliamentary elections and the CDU/CSU party bloc candidate is elected chancellor, as predicted by opinion polls before the election, Scholz's term in office will be shorter than that of any Social Democratic chancellor before him.
Photo: Kay Nietfeld/REUTERS
Alice Weidel is a candidate for chancellor from the far-right Alternative for Germany party. However, she has virtually no chance of leading the German government even if the AfD wins the election, as other parties refuse to enter into a coalition with the far-right party, some of whose cells have been recognized by the security services as right-wing extremists. According to polls, the AfD, which advocates anti-immigrant positions, has the support of about 20 percent of voters and may come in second.
Photo: Markus Schreiber/AP/picture alliance
Robert Habeck, a former co-chair of the Union-90/Green party, is also running for chancellor in the current election as a candidate of this political force. In the current minority government, Habeck is the Minister of Economy, and former Green co-chair Annalena Burbock is the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The main topics of the German elections were migration policy, the economic crisis, security in the EU, and support for Ukraine.
This is one of the main topics of the election, DW writes. The attacks committed by migrants on the streets of German cities have sparked a heated debate about tightening migration laws. For the first time in the history of Germany, at the end of January this year, the CDU/CSU conservatives even managed to get a resolution on this issue approved with the help of the AfD votes, which led to a wave of criticism against Friedrich Merz and mass protests in the country.
Disputes over the budget deficit actually led to the collapse of the coalition. High electricity prices, inflation, slowing economic growth and social welfare payments are causing a fierce debate in society.
Will Germany continue to help the country that has been repelling Russian military aggression for three years, will Russia launch a war against NATO, and where can we get money to strengthen our defense? Each of the parties offers its own answers to these questions, trying to relieve Germans of the fear of the threat of war. Both the current head of the German government, Olaf Scholz, and the current favorite for the future chancellorship, Friedrich Merz, strongly advocate further support for Ukraine, which is suffering from Russian aggression.
The main German parties have united in criticizing the statements made by US Vice President J.D. Vance, Voice of America reports. On February 17, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: "When the vice president interferes in the German election campaign and says that the far right parties are not so bad, I say that we consider the far right parties to be bad and we do not want to work with them."
Merz echoed these concerns: "Americans are questioning democratic institutions. And they are quite openly interfering in elections, including with democratic parties and their majorities. And I have to say that this worries me."
The first exit poll data will be available immediately after the polls close, at 18.00 local time (19.00 Kyiv time). In about an hour, the first results of the vote count will be published and will be updated throughout the evening. After the election, the winning party will have to negotiate with other parties to form a government coalition.
Polls show that the Christian Democrats will win the election, but will not gain a majority. Merz has ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the AfD, despite the fact that he relied on their votes in a parliamentary vote calling for stricter immigration controls.
The main German parties have tried to remove the far right from power since the end of World War II by refusing to join coalitions or relying on their votes in parliament, a policy known as firewall.
It was this policy that drew criticism from US Vice President J.D. Vance. During the Munich Security Conference, he focused in his speech on what he called the retreat from democracy by European allies.
A rally against cooperation with the AfD. Photo: Getty Images
"Democracy is based on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There is no room for a firewall. You either support the principle or you don't," Vance said before meeting with Weidel on the sidelines of the Munich Summit.
Dmytro Shevchenko, former Ukrainian consul in Munich and now chancellor of the Ukrainian Free University, told RBC-Ukraine: "It is already clear that the Christian Democrats will receive the most mandates. This will actually guarantee Friedrich Merz the post of chancellor. But this will require a coalition to be formed, and it is unclear who the potential partners of the CDU/CSU will be.
The greatest demand from both these parties and society is for a coalition of the CDU/CSU with the Free Democrats. Unfortunately, this is impossible. "The Free Democrats, even if they pass the five percent threshold, are unlikely to get enough votes," Shevchenko emphasized.
Another option is a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats. However, judging by the ratings, the two parties may not have enough mandates. Therefore, it is likely that a third party will have to be involved in the coalition, which a priori will make such an association unstable.
Even among the two main parties, there are many disagreements on the second most important topic for Germans - the economy. For the second year in a row, Germany has been experiencing an economic recession. There are many reasons for this, ranging from rising energy prices, which used to be purchased cheaply from Russia, to competition on world markets with China and other factors. This is a problem in itself.
Scholz's position on supporting Ukraine is known. Under his chancellorship, Germany has become the second largest donor of financial aid to Kyiv. At the same time, Scholz is reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons that can change the situation on the battlefield. For example, he never agreed to provide long-range Taurus missiles.
The Christian Democrats have so far been more decisive, at least in rhetoric. Merz regularly criticizes Scholz for his indecision. On January 24, he said that ending Russia's war against Ukraine would be one of the strategic priorities of the government he leads. At the same time, Merz emphasized that Ukraine must "win the war."
"Victory means the restoration of territorial integrity with a democratically legitimate government exercising its own state sovereignty," Merz said.
According to him, Ukraine should be free to choose its political and military alliances, apparently referring to the movement towards the EU and NATO.
At least from this point of view, the German elections should bring positive changes for Ukraine, according to Shevchenko. But these changes need to happen quickly. And Berlin is not used to that.
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