Friends in Interest: What You Need to Know About Relations between Hungary and Russia

Relations between Hungary and Russia have not always been positive. Indeed, in the twentieth century, they could be generally described as poor. In the twenty-first century, however, the situation has changed radically: Hungary is now Russia's best friend in the EU and NATO. We will try to analyze the reasons for this reversal in the next article.

With this publication , Intent is launching a series of materials on the Hungarian elections.

Hungarians and Russia

In the first half of the twentieth century, humanity experienced two world wars. And in both cases, Hungarians and Russians found themselves on opposite sides of the barricades. In the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian Empire sided with Germany, with which it had close political and cultural relations. After the defeat in the war, the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed, and the newly created Hungary was extremely dissatisfied with the Treaty of Trianon, which resulted in the loss of significant territory. Like the Germans, the Hungarians spent the next twenty years thinking about revenge. Because of their common interests, they again fought on the same side in World War II and lost again.

Hungary after the signing of the Trianon Peace Treaty. The remaining territory is marked in light green. MAP: Wikipedia.

As you know, after the end of World War II, Hungary found itself in the socialist camp. The Communists quickly seized power in the country, but Hungarian society was dissatisfied with the dictates of Moscow. After the successful revolt of Yugoslavia and the subsequent death of Stalin, some other countries in the socialist camp felt hopeful. Hungary tried to seize their chance in 1956, but their desperate resistance was crushed by Soviet tanks. Hungarians never tried to free themselves again, but they still remember the uprising and the role played by the USSR and Russia.

In the center of Budapest, young people celebrate the anniversary of the 1956 uprising. Photo: Getty Images/AFP/Peter Kohalmi.

Viktor Orban and the 180-degree turn

Viktor Orban was born in socialist Hungary shortly after the 1956 uprising. Orbán 's emergence as a politician took place in the late 1980s. In 1988, he began his political career as a founding member of the liberal Fidesz party. The following year, he gained national prominence for his speech in support of the victims of the Hungarian uprising. In the speech, he also called for free elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary. In the same year, he received a scholarship from the Soros Foundation and spent a year doing an internship in England. The latter fact is interesting because today Orban harshly criticizes George Soros. It can be noted that during this period, Orban was interested in liberal ideas, although they hardly became his beliefs.

Viktor Orban at the beginning of his political career. PHOTO: telegraf.ua.

Soon Orban became the leader of Fidesz, which under his leadership in the 1990s transformed from a liberal party to a right-wing conservative party. In 1998, when Orbán became prime minister for the first time, Fidesz was firmly on the center-right.

Orbán won the presidency for the next time in 2010 and has remained in office ever since. It is worth emphasizing two important changes that Orbán brings to power. First, his political views are shifting from center-right to right-wing radicalism, i.e. extreme nationalist ideas with overtly populist rhetoric. Secondly, Orbán has unexpectedly developed close ties with Russia. In particular, in 2008, he sharply criticized Russia for its aggression against Georgia, and in November of the following year he met with Putin in Russia, and a month later he met with the Chinese leadership. This is how Orban launched his new political doctrine of "opening up the East," and Hungary began a long period of close contacts with Russia.

Reasons for the Russian-Hungarian friendship

At first glance, it seems that there is only one obvious explanation for Orban's favorable attitude towards Russia. In fact, the situation is worth looking at more deeply. So let's try to outline a number of reasons that underlie official Hungary's commitment to the northern empire.

Energy benefits

Almost from the very beginning of his return to power, Viktor Orban began to negotiate with Putin for discounted energy supplies. In this way, he lowered prices and strengthened his position to win the next election. As you know, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU began to reduce its consumption of Russian energy. In particular, the share of Russian gas in EU countries has dropped from 45 percent to 19 percent, and the share of Russian oil from 27 percent to 3 percent. Hungary's dependence on Russian energy, on the other hand, is only increasing. The share of Russian gas is approximately 70-75 percent, and the share of Russian oil is even higher - 85-90 percent. Obviously, the agreement provides for substantial discounts. Russia has also provided Hungary with a $10 billion loan for a project to restore and increase the capacity of four units at the Paks NPP.

Dual vector and political ambitions

Despite Hungary's energy dependence, Orban positions himself as an independent politician who is trying to play on the contradictions between the EU and Russia. This strategy is not new. In particular, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma tried to balance between the West and Russia. So, on the one hand, Hungary has certain revenues from the EU and can influence decision-making within the EU and NATO, and on the other hand, it receives discounts from Russia and is building relations with China and Iran. Orban allows himself to criticize Russia from time to time. In particular, he publicly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, his critical attitude toward Russia should not be exaggerated. Rather, it is a game of playing a strong and independent politician for the Hungarian electorate. It is likely that Hungary and Russia even have an agreement on the scope of acceptable criticism that does not start to harm Moscow. We emphasize that it is friendship with Russia that allows Orban to behave so independently in the EU.

Conservatism or anti-liberalism

Orban constantly emphasizes that he does not share the EU's liberal values. In particular, he has a negative attitude towards LGBT views, which are actively promoted by the West. Here, in the person of Putin, he finds a "faithful" defender of the so-called traditional values. Orban may indeed think so, but more importantly, he is perfectly aligned with his right-wing electorate in this regard.

A penchant for authoritarianism

Since 2010, Orban and his party have done a lot on the road to authoritarianism. In particular, the constitution was amended to tighten control over the courts, prosecutors, and the electoral system. They also passed laws against organizations with foreign funding and laws that make it difficult for independent universities to operate. Hungary is one of the most corrupt countries in the EU. The government is closely linked to business, which receives preferences as a result. There is a systemic pressure on independent media in Hungary, and their number is decreasing. At the same time, the state funds loyal media. In the EU, Hungary is constantly criticized for oppressing democracy. Sometimes the system built by Orban is compared to the Russian system. Obviously, in Russia, China, and Iran, Orban's actions are fully supported.

Personal financial interest

Hungarian journalists and analysts have suggested that Viktor Orban may be a direct beneficiary of close relations with Moscow. This version can be indirectly supported by the general corruption in Hungary, the lack of transparency in its energy deals with Russia, and the incredibly close ties to Russia for an EU country. On the other hand, there is no direct evidence against Orban. The close ties to Russia can also be explained by Orban's political pragmatism, which has allowed him to stay in power for 16 years.

Difficult relations with Ukraine and Hungarian nationalism

In his populist rhetoric, Orban often appeals to Hungarian nationalism. For example, he came to a soccer match between Hungary and Greece with a scarf depicting the so-called "Greater Hungary," i.e., the territory of Hungary before the Trianon Peace Treaty. This immediately provoked protests from neighboring countries, including Ukraine. Therefore, the territory of Zakarpattia, where Ukrainians with Hungarian roots live, is an obvious stumbling block between the two countries.

Viktor Orban wearing a scarf with the image of "Greater Hungary" at the Hungary-Greece football match. PHOTO: INDEX.

The Law on Education and the Law on the State Language have caused serious tensions between Hungary and Ukraine. According to Hungary, these laws infringed on the rights of Hungarian-speaking residents of Zakarpattia. Of course, a constant trigger for the complication of relations is the fact that Hungary systematically opposes Ukraine's attempts to join the EU and NATO.

A new round of complications between the two countries is taking place today during the Hungarian election campaign. It seems that against the backdrop of economic problems in the country, Viktor Orban has decided to create an external enemy out of Ukraine to which he can turn the attention of the electorate. Hungary has detained Ukrainian cash collectors, accuses Ukraine of deliberately blocking the Druzhba oil pipeline damaged by Russia, and even of threats to Orban's life from Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Hungarian special forces detain Ukrainian cash collectors. IMAGE: screenshot from the video.

In his election campaign, Orban accuses Ukraine of funding the Hungarian opposition, which, once in power, will force Hungarians to die for Ukraine. Apparently, tense relations with Ukraine are bringing Orban closer to Putin.

Pro-government demonstrators in Budapest hold a banner that reads "We don't want to die for Ukraine!" PHOTO: AP/Rudolf Karancsi.

Russia's interest

Russia's interest in friendship with Orban is quite transparent. First, Russia has received its own "observer" in the EU and NATO with the right to actively interfere in the policies of both organizations. Secondly, it has entered into an agreement with Ukraine's negative neighbor, which provides additional pressure in a time of war.

Conclusions.

Relations between Orban and Russia can be considered quite mutually beneficial. Orban receives discounts on energy, support in tense relations with the EU, NATO and Ukraine, and in the implementation of his populist political rhetoric. Putin, in relations with Orban and Hungary, gains an ally capable of splitting the EU and NATO, as well as creating constant pressure on Ukraine. It is also important to emphasize that the friendship between Putin and Orban is based on a similar worldview.

It must be admitted that against the backdrop of Orban's election hysteria, it is virtually impossible to restore normal relations if he wins. Of course, the degree of tension will immediately drop after the election, but the trail of long-term mutual discontent will not disappear. So Ukraine is obviously interested in a change of government in Hungary. Another thing is that we probably shouldn't expect a 180-degree turn if Orban's main rival, Peter Magyar, wins. It should be understood that Magyar used to be a member of Orban's Fidesz party and has a similar, though not identical, electorate. With his victory, Hungary will not be able to afford to get off the Russian energy needle. It is also unlikely that the tension over Zakarpattia will disappear. We can expect that the presidents of Ukraine and Hungary will start building their own relations from scratch, and we can also hope for a certain reduction in resistance to Ukraine's European integration.

Олег Пархітько