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Jan. 23, 2025, 7:58 p.m.

Presidential elections in Belarus 2025: what is behind the farce

Цей матеріал також доступний українською

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Lukashenko is campaigning for himself. Belarus in 2025. Photo: AP

Lukashenko is campaigning for himself. Belarus in 2025. Photo: AP

January 26 is the official election day in Belarus. It is unlikely that Alexander Lukashenko and his regime need any additional representation in Ukraine. However, as part of the series"Electoral Systems of the World" Intent will talk about the voting system of our neighbors, the background of the elections, the reaction of the West, and whether it is possible to change the relations between our countries.

The electoral system

The Constitution of the country declares that the Republic of Belarus is a unitary, democratic, social state. The form of government is a presidential republic. The head of state is the president; since July 10, 1994, this position has been held by Alexander Lukashenko. State power is exercised on the basis of its division into legislative, executive and judicial branches. The state system is a unitary state.

According to the constitution of the republic, the president is elected for a five-year term. Elections are called by the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus no later than five months in advance and are held on a Sunday no later than two months before the expiration of the term of the incumbent president. A citizen of the Republic of Belarus by birth, not younger than 35 years of age, who has the right to vote and has been permanently residing in the country for at least ten years immediately before the election, may be elected president. A citizen with a criminal record cannot become a presidential candidate. All citizens of the country who have reached the age of 18 are eligible to vote in the presidential election. Elections are held by the majority system.

The president has almost absolute power, and this form of government gives him the right to dissolve both houses of parliament; issue decrees that have the status of law; appoint 6 out of 12, including the President, and remove all judges of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court and other courts of all levels.

The party system in the Republic of Belarus is underdeveloped for various reasons, including the lack of a party tradition, the fact that all elections are held under the majority system, difficult conditions for party registration and operation, and the weak development of civil society.

Alexander Lukashenko is the de facto leader of the country, having been elected to office in 1994, 2001, 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020. After the 2020 elections, his legitimacy will not be recognized by the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Ukraine, and a number of other countries.

Elections 2020

The 2020 elections in Belarus were accompanied by protests that began long before the election day. On May 15, the Central Election Commission refused to register an initiative group to nominate Sergei Tikhanovsky as a presidential candidate, citing formalities. The documents were submitted by Tikhanovsky's wife Svetlana on the basis of a power of attorney. Afterwards, Svetlana announced that she would run for president instead of her husband.

The events related to the pressure on the opposition caused a public outcry. A rally organized by Sergei Tikhanovsky in Minsk on May 24 is generally considered to be the beginning of the protests. The event gathered about 500 people. At that time, Tikhanovski had already been denied registration of the initiative group, so he called for support for his wife Sviatlana.

After the CEC registered Svetlana Tikhanovska's candidacy, her campaign meetings in the capital and regions began to gather an average of 10,000 people, and the largest rally on July 30 gathered, according to human rights activists, 63,000.

On August 6, Tikhanovskaya was unable to organize the announced rally in Minsk, as all the places for campaigning were occupied by state events. Several thousand of Tikhanovskaya's supporters gathered in Kyiv Square for one of the state events. The sound engineers played Viktor Tsoi's song "Peremen", which led to their arrest.

The main wave of protests began in the evening of August 9, when the first official exit polls appeared. According to them, Lukashenka won almost 80% of the vote, while Tikhanovskaya received less than 7%. According to the CEC, the election result was 80.1% for Lukashenko and 10.1% for Tikhanovskaya. Internet and mobile communications were partially cut off in the country. In the evening, news sites stopped working. Riot police and internal troops used force against the demonstrators, and the protests were dispersed with water cannons, tear gas and stun grenades.


Photo: TUT.by

In July 2021, an alternative vote count was published, which was conducted using the Golos platform. Voters independently marked their choice in Golos and sent photos of ballots indicating the polling station where they voted. Thus, it was established for whom almost 900 thousand voters voted at almost all polling stations (5696 out of 5767).

In addition, 1545 protocols of precinct election commissions were collected and digitized, including 1517 protocols from the territory of Belarus. Combining this information, it was possible to establish alternative election results that differed significantly from the official ones:

  • Tikhanovskaya - 56% of the vote;
  • Lukashenko - 34% of the vote;
  • Other - 10% of the vote.

About 3 million Belarusians voted for Tikhanovskaya and 1.8 million for Lukashenko.

The protests lasted for almost a year. The last protests took place on Freedom Day on March 25, 2021. Due to repression, some protesters fled the country and some were imprisoned. Many countries did not recognize the election.

Presidential elections 2025: why now

It should be noted that this year's elections will be held against the backdrop of joint military exercises of the armed forces of Belarus and Russia, large-scale police training, and increased arrests, Suspilne reports.

Belarusians who have left the country will not be able to vote in the elections - there are no polling stations abroad. It is also likely that some Western observers will not be present (the Belarusian authorities have already refused to allow the OSCE to do so).

The previous elections were held in August 2020, and therefore, according to the constitution, a new vote was to be scheduled for July 20, 2025 at the latest, but Lukashenka organized the polls ahead of schedule on January 26.


Svetlana Tikhanovskaya holds a photo of her husband Sergei. Photo: Getty Images/AFP/Sergei Gapon

Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya calls the announced elections a "farce."

In this election, Lukashenko is running with a conditional program: "it would be worse without me". How effective it is is unknown, as there are no ratings of candidate support in Belarus. According to the CEC, 2.5 million people signed for Lukashenko, while the support of none of his opponents exceeded 135,000. These are the leaders of the three pro-government parties - Oleg Gaidukevich (LDPR), Sergei Syrankov (CPB) and Alexander Khizhnyak (Republican Party of Labor and Justice) - and businesswoman Anna Kanopatskaya.

Pavel Latushko, a representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, suggests that this was done because Lukashenka was afraid of possible protests, saying that they are potentially more difficult to organize in winter.

Yaroslav Chornohor, Director of the Russian and Belarusian Studies Program at the Foreign Policy Council's Ukrainian Prism think tank, believes that the protest potential of Belarusians is significantly lower than in 2020, as a significant number of citizens have left the country, and another part has lost faith in the opposition.

Valery Karbalevich, a political commentator for the Belarusian edition of Radio Liberty, also notes that repression has intensified on the eve of the election and has been extended to new categories: "For example, the government passed a decree that a family is considered socially dangerous if at least one of its members has been prosecuted for participating in protests."

Why Lukashenko wants to stage an election

One of the main reasons for Lukashenko's desire to be re-elected, Karbalevich says, is his attempt to restore his legitimacy in the West: "2020 showed that Lukashenko holds on to power by force. He wants to prove that now the Belarusian people will elect me and the West will be forced to recognize me. And at the same time, he wants to delegitimize Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who has declared herself the democratic leader of Belarus."

Legitimacy is needed, among other things, for the potential easing of sanctions, which already affect almost 300 individuals and 40 legal entities from Belarus (a few weeks before the election, the European Union introduced another sanctions package against Belarusian officials and businessmen).

To potentially ease the sanctions, Lukashenka launched another process - despite the increase in arrests in the country, last summer the self-proclaimed head of Belarus signed an amnesty law. Since then, he has pardoned 227 people. "He wants to prepare the ground so that when the election results come out, European and American diplomats, even if they are not of the highest level, may return, which should show that he is reckoned with in the world," says Yaroslav Chornogor.

But, as The New York Times notes, Lukashenka is not letting go of the most prominent leaders of the 2020 protests, such as Maria Kolesnikova or Viktor Babaryk. In total, according to the Viasna Human Rights Center, there are currently 1258 more political prisoners in Belarus.

"If Lukashenka released any of the protest leaders, it could stir up the Belarusian opposition abroad. But he doesn't do this because he is safe. Tikhanovskaya travels to events, takes pictures with political figures, and this does not harm the regime. If Lukashenko feels threatened, he may use other means to discredit her. Her husband is in his hands," says Chornohor.

Another international aspect of Lukashenko's interest in gaining legitimacy, according to the experts interviewed by Suspilne, is participation in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The head of Belarus often talks about this and emphasizes that such negotiations cannot take place without his country, because they affect its interests.

"Lukashenka's biggest dream is to be a mediator, which is an unrealistic scenario after he provided the territory of Belarus for Russian aggression. The second option is that he is ready to sit down next to Putin, because in this context he will be seen as a partner in the negotiations," explains Latushko.

Fiction in the eyes of the West

On the eve of the presidential election in Belarus, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on EU countries not to recognize the results and to strengthen sanctions against the "illegitimate and criminal" regime of Alexander Lukashenko, DW reports.

The European Parliament called on the EU countries and the entire international community to "categorically reject the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus and the election campaign as sham, as they do not meet the minimum international standards for democratic elections," and to continue the policy of not recognizing the legitimacy of Alexander Lukashenko as president. This is stated in the resolution adopted by the European Parliament on Wednesday, January 22, in Strasbourg. The document was supported by 567 lawmakers, 25 voted against, and 66 abstained.

MEPs reiterated that they consider the current regime in Belarus to be "illegitimate, illegal and criminal," while reaffirming their "unwavering support for the Belarusian people in their quest for democracy, freedom and human rights."

Ukraine and Belarus: Should we expect changes?

Belarus and Ukraine share 1,084 kilometers of common border in the north. During the initial stages of Russia' s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarus provided its territory to the enemy to attack Ukraine, but there is no evidence that it sent its soldiers to the war.

Belarus also allowed Russia full access to its military air bases for military aircraft. Already on February 24, the Ukrainian military chief reported that four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus toward southwestern Ukraine.

In addition, investigators found a filtration camp of the Russian occupation forces in Belarus. The investigation was carried out in cooperation with the Schemes project of the Ukrainian service of Radio Liberty, the Belarusian edition of Radio Liberty, with the support of Cyber Partisans and The Reckoning Project, an organization that records human rights violations.

The camp was reportedly set up at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and human rights activists called the conditions of detention and treatment of prisoners there among the most brutal.

These are just some of the facts of indirect participation of the Lukashenko regime in the war against our country. It is also important to note that on March 25, 2023, Putin said that he had reached an agreement with Lukashenka on the deployment and storage of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, and added that Lukashenka had long been asking him to do so.

Against this backdrop, there can be only one worsening scenario for Ukraine - the Lukashenko regime's direct entry into a war using the country's armed forces.

On the other hand, we can state that the self-proclaimed president is currently maneuvering on the edge and preventing a direct clash between his troops and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


Image: Human Rights Center "Viasna"

It is also important to take into account that there is a tacit anti-war consent of the society and the authorities in Belarus. The vast majority of the population, even supporters of the dictatorship, are not ready for the country to enter the war.

That is, we can assume that Lukashenko will once again declare himself president of the country, with no chance of gaining full legitimacy in the eyes of the world community. But the desire to retain power will continue to force him to maneuver between friendship with Russia and non-participation of the Belarusian armed forces in hostilities.

Ігор Льов

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