Odesa City Council's Composition Faces Changes Ahead of February 21 Session

On the eve of the first session of the Odesa City Council in 2024, scheduled for February 21, it is worth remembering, or even better, calculating who exactly makes decisions in the session hall. The calculations will be arithmetic, but with a political context.

According to the results of the 2020 regular local elections, 64 deputies from five parties that formed the eponymous factions were elected to the Odesa City Council: 20 deputies from Trust the Deeds, 18 from Opposition Platform - For Life, 10 from Servant of the People, 10 from European Solidarity, and 6 from Shariy's Party.

By law, the council secretary, Ihor Koval, who was elected from the Servant of the People party, cannot be a member of any faction. However, for the sake of convenience in counting the number of deputies and analyzing votes in the council, we will conditionally refer to him as a member of the Servant of the People faction.

Changes in the composition of Odesa City Council from 2020 to 2023

The first deputies to lose their status at the end of 2021 were Oleksii Nagatkin and Hanna Shabanova. By the decision of the Shariy Party, their deputy mandates were revoked. But there is an interesting nuance: the Odesa City Council did not submit draft decisions on the termination of their deputy powers. Also, there are no publicly available minutes or resolutions of the Odesa City TEC on the consideration of the decision of the Shariy party congress to revoke the mandates. However, despite the fact that Nagatkin objectively disagreed with this decision and sued both the party and the council secretary (in 2023, he won the lawsuit), the city council website promptly removed any information about these two deputies and stopped sending them invitations to sessions.

Another interesting fact is that at that time, the Shariy Party, provided that the requirements of the law on the withdrawal of deputy mandates were met, could have conducted a replacement procedure and introduced two new deputies to the city council to replace the departed ones. But...

So, the Shariy Party faction remained with 4 deputies, and the actual total composition of the council decreased to 62.

Most changes in the composition of the council occurred after February 24, 2022.

The OPFL faction announced its self-dissolution in March 2022, but none of its 18 members resigned. On the contrary, non-factional MPs formed two groups: "Ukrainian Dream" consisting of 5 members (chairman Oleksandr Avdeev, members Oleksandr Baiderin, Mykhailo Karpenchuk, Serhiy Shmatko and Nikita Avdeev) and "For Life and Peace" consisting of 10 members (chairman Vitaliy Sautenkov, members Viktor Baransky, Ihor Batrakov, Ivan Demchenko, Oleksandr Edelman, Oleksiy Yeremitsa, Volodymyr Kornienko, Roman Seny, Serhiy Uzunov and Dina Yatsenko). Not included in the groups: Bogdan Giganov, Olena Vododyuk, and Lilia Leonidova.

In September 2023, Ivan Demchenko died. So, formally, 17 non-factional deputies remained in the ex-Opposition Platform for Life. And the total number of deputies decreased to 61.

During the session on November 29, 2023, the statements of deputies Vadym Tereshchuk (EU) and Olena Korobkova (Servant of the People) on the early termination of their powers were supported.

Accordingly, the composition of both factions - "Servant of the People" and "European Solidarity" - actually amounts to 9 deputies, and the total composition of the council is 59 deputies.

Unlike the banned OPFL and Shariy's Party, the Odesa branches of the Servant of the People and European Solidarity parties, if they want and are able, are able to replace the deputies who have resigned with new ones from the list. However, without the relevant decision of the Odesa City TEC and then its announcement in the session hall, this is quite difficult. However, so far, no information has been announced about plans to replace the representatives of these parties.

It is worth noting that the changes also affected the "Trust the Deeds" faction. The head of the faction (and the party), Oleh Bryndak, whose monolithic friendship with the mayor of the city cracked, announced in October 2023 that he had joined the Armed Forces and was stationed in a military unit. Much has been written about the reasons for this decision, but we will only mention the fact that the pillar of the pro-mayor majority left the faction with one vote in decision-making at the session. Although the congress of the "Trust the Deeds" party elected a new party leader, and the faction in the Rada elected a new chairman, the party has not yet started to revoke the mandate of MP Bryndak.

What changes can we expect?

On November 30, 2023, MP Oleksandra Kovalchuk ("Servant of the People") published a statement on her Facebook page about her resignation from the parliamentary seat. But at the session on December 7, 2023, her statement was not supported. The vote failed three times, and she remains a de facto MP.

It is worth noting that the deputy has been in the United States since the full-scale invasion, coming to the city only for sessions. She talked about resigning her mandate back in 2022, but according to her colleagues, her faction refrained from taking this step.

However, a draft decision on Oleksandra Kovalchuk's resignation was again submitted to the session on February 21, 2024. Three other city council members also submitted their resignations: Dina Yatsenko (ex-Opposition Platform for Life), Ilya Freiman (head of the Shariy Party faction), and a member of this faction, Volodymyr Ivanov.

If the session supports these applications by voting, the total formal composition of the council will decrease from 59 to 55 deputies.

The actual number of deputies in the Odesa City Council in 2024

However, 55 deputies on the list does not mean 55 in the hall. In fact, as of February 2024, there are 47 deputies in the city council.

Non-factional deputies (ex-OPFL)

After February 24, 2022, Nikita Avdeev, Viktor Baransky, Bohdan Giganov, Vitaliy Sautenov, and Dina Yatsenko have not appeared in the session hall.

It is worth reminding that Viktor Baransky and Vitaliy Sautenkov, who are no longer Ukrainian citizens, were put on the wanted list by the NABU, Bohdan Higanov is in Russia, and Nikita Avdeev has recently been localized in the United States, at least according to his Instagram photos.

Therefore, in fact, the group of eskOPZZH (non-factional) deputies who can attend the sessions of the city council includes only 12 deputies.

Shariy's Party faction

All deputies of the Shariy Party faction have stopped attending sessions and have disappeared from the public space altogether. Therefore, even if Freiman and Ivanov actually cease to be members of the city council, and Olena Zefner and Ivan Semchuk remain, this will not change the balance of power in the session hall. The Shariy Party faction is de facto represented by 0 deputies.

European Solidarity faction

After Tereshchuk resigned, the faction has 9 MPs left. But in fact, there are fewer of them. MP Viktor Naumchak has not attended sessions since February 2022 and is probably outside Ukraine. We would not be surprised if the party "persuades" Naumchak to write a letter of resignation, and instead of him and Tereshchuk, the party will try to bring in new "reinforcements."

Until a new MP is appointed to replace Tereshchuk, and Naumchak is simply "counted," the faction can give a maximum of 8 votes.

The Servant of the People faction

After Korobkova resigns and if Kovalchuk's application is upheld, the faction will also have 8 votes (along with the council secretary). Here, the issue of new deputies is even more acute than for the EU faction. The political situation in the city is such that this process may be bureaucratically blocked.

"Trust the Deeds" faction

As mentioned above, deputy Bryndak is actually resigning from the city council. So, until the pro-mayor party decides how to deprive this deputy of his mandate and replace him with a more loyal one, the faction will be able to give 19 votes in the voting. Although sometimes this maximum is reached through button-pressing.

In total, we actually have 47 deputies who attend or may attend the council sessions as of the beginning of 2024.

Is there a "golden share" in Odesa city council in 2024?

According to the law, the total number of members of the Odesa City Council is 64. This figure is important in the context of changes in the personal composition of the city council as of 2024. According to the law, the number of votes required for decision-making (50% + 1 vote) is counted from the total number of members, and the vote of the mayor is also taken into account during the voting at the sessions. That is, 33 votes are needed to pass any decision of the Odesa City Council.

At the beginning of this council's term, the votes of the Dovirui Dilam and Servant of the People factions were used to make decisions in most cases, with reinforcement at various points from the OPFL or the EU. This conditional pro-government majority was situational and not very stable.

After February 2022, the EU faction decided to take advantage of the absence of individual MPs from the OPFL and the Servant of the People within Ukraine and blocked the adoption of both land decisions at one of the sessions and the approval of the agenda at another. Once the faction left the hall right during a meeting. However, it was unable to convert its advantage in deputies (compared to the OPFL and the Servant of the People).

During 2023, it became increasingly clear that the mayor needed to be supported in the council by the stable support of ex-OPFL members. More and more often, the votes of Trust the Deeds and ex-OPFL became the basis for voting, but the minimum number of 33 votes in favor had to be reached by negotiating with either the EU or the Servant of the People representatives.

At the session on November 29, 2023, several events took place that give reason to believe that a new majority was formed in the Odesa City Council.

The principled proposals on land issues of the Servant of the People faction and its head Vadym Morokhovsky were voted down. At the session on December 7, the deputies of the ex-OPFL failed to vote for the resignation of Oleksandra Kovalchuk, a member of the Servant of the People faction, in the second and third votes, together with members of the Trust the Deeds faction.

This was done in a manner of communication that was far from polite, with the help of very offensive non-factional deputies who for some reason decided that it was unacceptable to call them deputies from the OPFL party. It is now clear that Trukhanov is not able to effectively cooperate with Morokhovskyi and the Servant of the People faction.

Also noteworthy is the complimentary meeting from the mayor and the invitation to speak at the rostrum at two consecutive sessions of the EU MP Oleksiy Honcharenko. Odesa residents are well aware of the history of "friendship" between these politicians. That is why such a warm meeting and communication between two political antagonists, who were in the recent past, cannot go unnoticed. We assume that an agreement was reached, forced upon Mayor Trukhanov, on the support of the EU faction in the city council for the necessary decisions. Of course, in most cases, this can and will be publicly justified as cooperation for the sake of the city and the adoption of vital issues for the citizens.

That is, there is no answer to the question of who holds the "golden share" in the council. Arithmetically, a situation may arise where "everyone is against everyone". The agreements are fresh, and the socio-political situation in the city is very unstable, so each faction and individual deputy will have to make their own decision during the voting within their political freedom.

What we have on the eve of the February 21 session

Assuming that all MPs from all factions and groups attend the session, there will be 47 MPs in the hall. Of these, 19 votes from "Trust the Deeds" and 8 from the "EU" will make 27. Let's conditionally add the ex-OPFL deputies (the Ukrainian Dream group almost consistently supports projects important to the mayor that have been considered at recent sessions), but this is only 4 deputies. To increase the "support", they began to "summon" deputies Ihor Batrakov and Serhiy Uzunov (ex-Opposition Platform for Life), who are serving in the Armed Forces. By the way, at the session on December 17, 2023, they left Sautenkov's group. That is, 2 more votes. So, as a result, we have 33 deputies out of the required 33 and the vote of the mayor, i.e. 34 "bayonets". But this is on the condition that all deputies will be present and vote as they should.

It is also worth mentioning the deputies from the OPFL, who act as "opposition" to the government and can sometimes afford to vote against or abstain from voting for projects that the mayor needs.

The mayor should most likely add two more votes from representatives of the banned OPFL party to his assets. Liliia Leonidova was appointed an advisor to the mayor in the fall of 2023. And Oleksii Yeremytsia, who has not been included in any deputy commission since 2020 (he always wanted to be in the budget commission), may be given the position of chairman of the Standing Committee on Health at the February 21 session.

Instead of a conclusion

It is obvious that the pro-government majority will continue to be made up of the "Trust the Deeds" faction with 19 votes and representatives of the ex-Opposition Platform for Life with 12 votes. However, this is not enough for an effective vote, so an attempt was made to reach an agreement with the representatives of the EU with their 8 votes.

We can assume with a high degree of probability that this alliance, if implemented at the upcoming session, will not last long. The EU faction still takes into account public opinion to some extent and will respond very carefully to public requests. After all, the problem of "decision-making" is the mayor's headache and his responsibility in the eyes of more citizens. But the political reputation or its remnants for the EU deputies may again become more expensive than the "agreements" with "Trust the Deeds" and the ex-OPFL.

The ex-OPFL deputies can also play their part in this game if they refuse to vote in favor. In that case, the mayor will have to bow down to representatives of the Servant of the People faction, who will be even harder to persuade.

This means that we can expect very unexpected votes, unstable work of the council (postponement of sessions or appointments every 2-3 months instead of the required minimum by law - meetings once a month) and unexpected votes from individual deputies of different factions.

Instead of a bonus, a rhetorical question to the city council. As of now, any information about all 6 deputies of the Shariy Party faction has been removed from the city council website. Unlike other deputies who have resigned, this looks unexplainable.

Yes, Shariy's party is banned, but it is not possible to deprive them of their mandates, as well as representatives of the OPFL, at the legislative level.

So, on whose signature was the decision made to remove the profiles of 6 deputies of the banned Shariy Party faction from the city's website, while they de facto have a deputy mandate. Was this done to "cleanse" the ranks or only because they do not appear in the council?

But for the same reasons, the profiles of all 18 deputies from the OPFL, those outside Ukraine and those in the city, could have been deleted. Or do you not pity those whom the eyes do not see, but the heart does?

Мірра Соколова