What does the capture of the Venezuelan president mean for Ukraine?

The night of January 3 will go down in history forever. On that night, U.S. troops attacked military targets in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and captured the country's leader , Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, Silia Flores. This operation is being discussed all over the world, and for good reason.

The U.S. government, as well as the government of Ukraine and most countries in the world, does not consider Maduro to be the legitimate president of Venezuela and accuses him and Flores of conspiring to commit "narco-terrorism," import cocaine, and store weapons and explosive devices for use against the United States.

U.S. Representative to the United Nations Michael Volz said that the removal and detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife was "a surgical operation to ensure law and order with the support of the U.S. military." According to him, the United States is not at war with Venezuela and is not planning an occupation.

For Ukraine, although Venezuela is far away, this event could have serious consequences...

Is the one with the bigger stick right?

Let's start with the bad. With this operation, the United States (or rather, Donald Trump) has shown that the rule of force, not the rule of law, can now operate in the world. If those who believe that there are certain agreements between the leaders of the United States, Russia and China are right (although it looks like a regular Russian IPSO), then this case may somewhat "legitimize" Russia's current actions against Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries, and possible further actions by China against Taiwan.

There are several facts in favor of this: on Sunday, January 4, Trump threatened Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who is acting president of the country after the abduction of Nicolas Maduro by US special forces, that she could pay a "very high price" if she "doesn't do what needs to be done." He told reporters that day that he could order a new strike if Venezuela did not cooperate with the United States.

It is possible that the same thing could happen to Cuba. No wonder U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with NBC News that Cuba has "big problems" and the United States is not a supporter of the Cuban regime.

Earlier, Rubio told reporters that he would be "concerned" if he were a government official in Havana. On NBC News, Rubio repeated his warning to Cuba, saying that "they are in big trouble."

"I'm not going to tell you what our next steps will be and what our policy will be on this issue. But I don't think it's any secret that we are not big supporters of the Cuban regime, which, by the way, supported Maduro," Rubio said.

Rubio was supported by his patron. On Saturday, Donald Trump compared the situation in Cuba to the situation in Venezuela.

"I think Cuba will be a topic of our further discussions, because Cuba is a country that is in crisis, a very difficult crisis, and we want to help its people," he told reporters.

Rubio added on Sunday that Cuban officials were with Maduro in Venezuela before his capture.

"It was the Cubans who guarded Maduro. He was not guarded by Venezuelan bodyguards. He had Cuban bodyguards," he said.

So, all of this confirms the current fact of the rule of force in the world:

"We live in a world where we can talk about international decency and other things as much as we want. But we live in a real world that is ruled by force, that is ruled by power," this quote is from Elbridge Colby, an American strategist and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development.

The bubble of the second world army

But there is a silver lining. First, Operation Delta in Caracas clearly demonstrated what real "surgical precision" looks like, as boasted by Russian bloggers. Social media is saying that in a couple of hours, the Americans multiplied by zero all the vaunted Russian air defense (from Buk to S-300) that was supposed to protect Maduro and dragged the dictator out of bed and into the shackles of a New York court.

I think it's just that Maduro's bodyguards were not allowed to access the air defense system, and there were certain agreements about this during the operation. But if this is the case, it looks like a humiliating slap in the face to Putin personally. Another one of his "key" allies, into whom billions of petrodollars and weapons have been pumped, went to the United States to testify as a common criminal. Once again, the Russian "cover" turned out to be a leaky one.

Maduro and Flores being led to court. PHOTO: ABC News

No wonder z-bloggers are "losing their minds" over what has happened. They frankly say that this is exactly what the SVO was supposed to be. And these are the words of those who happily picked up all the words of their Fuhrer.

Thus, Putin (collectively or not) may have big problems at home.

How to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible

There is one more good thing for our country. Since Putin still shows no intention of ending the war in Ukraine, the events in Venezuela still give Trump a very good chance to end it all and finally get the coveted peace prize (this is a joke, if anything).

The fact is that control over Venezuela and Guyana means control over more than 300 billion barrels of oil. Therefore, the United States has now become the sole owner of the "world oil tap." Venezuela's entry into the market under US auspices means a guaranteed drop in oil prices to $40-45 per barrel. And this is very bad for Putin and Co.

From now on, China and India can provide themselves with such "legal" cheap oil and not be sanctioned for it. And this is almost the end of financial flows to Russia. That is, the end of the war.

Володимир Шкаєв

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