Oct. 27, 2014, 2 a.m.
OPORA organized a parallel vote count at a statistical sample of polling stations from which observers receive a representative election result according to the lists of political parties (in a multi-mandate majority constituency).
The research was conducted by 1,477 specially trained OPORA observers. The activists monitored the entire voting process, the counting procedure and recorded the actual data from the protocols, the results of which were trusted. The PEC is not a poll, but an accurate method of assessing the results from the primary PEC protocols received from polling stations selected by sociological sampling. Polling stations in Odesa region were covered by activists of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine.
What is the PSC?
Parallel vote tabulation (PVT) is an effective method used by independent civic observers to systematically assess the voting on election day, including the counting of results at polling stations. PVOs provide an opportunity to independently verify the official results announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC). PECs are based on reports of specially trained observers who assess the quality of the process at polling stations. Unlike exit polls, the EVP does not include a survey of citizens about their choices. The actual number of votes cast at a polling station included in the monitoring is counted. This method has been successfully used by civil society organizations to assess the voting process on election day in many countries around the world, including Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia.
Why is it necessary to conduct a PVP?
Properly conducted, a PVP provides a rapid analysis of the electoral process based on primary factual data obtained from observer reports. A COE can validate official results and increase confidence in well-run elections. It can also expose fraud or show problems in the electoral process and assess whether they may have affected the election results. Thus, a COE reduces the possibility of political conflict.
What kind of information does the PCV provide?
An EOM provides reliable statistical data on which to base an assessment of the electoral process. Observers use a standardized form that allows them to assess the course of election day and the results of the vote. The PPG allows for the collection of two types of information:
1. Process information:
Observers use a standardized form that allows them to assess the level of adherence to election procedures, voting and counting processes.
An example of qualitative data from a PEC conducted by OPORA during the 2014 presidential elections in Ukraine:
PEC members signed protocols on voting results in 99% of polling stations. Only in
1.1% of polling stations PEC members added a dissenting opinion to the protocol.
The PSC allows to determine whether the vote counting process correctly reflects the result of the citizens' will and to observe the voting throughout the day to determine whether there are significant problems.
2. Official election results for the proportional component, according to PEC protocols:
How accurate are the results of the PRT?
During the May 2014 presidential election, 861,148 Ukrainians voted at 1,500 polling stations selected through statistical sampling for the PRS. The margin of error for the votes cast for Yulia Tymoshenko was +/-0.6%, and the percentage result for the PRT was between 12.6% and 13.8%. The official result announced by the CEC was within the range of the data obtained by the PPG - 12.8%. For comparison, the largest exit poll conducted in the last election had 17,000 respondents from 400 polling stations, so no exit poll will give such accurate results as the PAP.
What happens if fraud occurs at the DEC level?
While the data obtained directly at the PECs can be trusted, the overall results are established indirectly through statistical analysis. If the official results of the CEC go beyond the results of the PECs, this casts doubt on the official results. By observing polling stations throughout the day, OPORA representatives monitor the voting process. This allows OPORA to assess how accurately the official results reflect the will of the citizens.
What is OPORA's experience in conducting the PGP?
The Civil Network OPORA is a non-governmental, non-partisan, and financially independent all-Ukrainian network of civic activists founded in 2006. OPORA has used the POC method during both rounds of the 2010 presidential election, the 2012 parliamentary elections, the 2013 parliamentary elections, and this year's early presidential election.
On October 26, OPORA deployed a network of 1,600 observers selected through a representative sample to collect information and conduct the EOM. To monitor the electoral process during the 2014 parliamentary elections, OPORA deployed 198 long-term observers in all constituencies where voting is taking place.